It is now clear that Li-ion batteries have won the race to electrify many forms of electric vehicles and the market is booming. There has been a flurry of investment in technology developers and battery manufacturers over the past few years and electric vehicle OEMs continue to announce their electrification strategies. The market has been further buoyed by resilient electric vehicle sales during 2020, despite the ongoing disruption of Covid-19. The market for Li-ion battery cells in electric vehicles is forecast to be worth nearly $70 billion by 2026 and the report will break down forecasts for electric cars, buses, vans and trucks along with an introduction to the drivers and restraints for these markets.
Nevertheless, currently, EV sales remain driven by policies and subsidies, which are being strengthened in the key markets of Europe and China and look set be strengthened in the US under the Biden administration. In order to move toward consumer driven, mass-market adoption, further improvements to Li-ion battery technology are desirable and this applies to many vehicle segments. The variety of choices that can be made with regard to Li-ion chemistry and battery design allows them to be tailored to applications with differing performance requirements and to understand this, the opportunities for electric vehicles including cars, buses, trucks, and boats must be appraised.
The report provides a deep dive into Li-ion cell technology, covering aspects such as preferred cell form factors and changing cell chemistries. While there is a clear trend in moving toward higher nickel layered oxides for BEVs, such as from NMC 622 to NMC 811, these high nickel cathodes will not be universally suitable. Different applications will require different performance characteristics such as greater levels of safety or higher cycle lives. For example, the use of LFP has gained attention for low-cost vehicles and Chinese e-buses almost exclusively use this cell chemistry. Different cathode materials are appraised for different vehicle segments and the strategies of OEMs and pack manufacturers are outlined. An outlook on cathode choices and demand is provided through to 2031.
Market share of Li-ion cathodes for electric vehicles. Forecast data available in the report. Source: IDTechEx
Threats to Li-ion do not offer sufficient performance or are not yet mature enough to offer a viable alternative. Developments and improvements to advanced Li-ion cells and chemistries are therefore the best for better performing batteries and electric vehicles. These developments are analysed, in particular, the report provides an appraisal of solid-state/Li-metal and silicon anode cell technology for use in electric vehicles. Some of the key players in this space are profiled and a timeline presented as to the improvements that can be expected from developments to Li-ion cell design and chemistry.
Beyond the cell, improvements to pack-level energy density are just as important. Trends to various battery pack designs are analysed, including on thermal management strategies, modular and cell-to-pack designs, and material light-weighting. Thermal management plays a critical role in maintaining the safe operation of Li-ion batteries. The importance of good thermal management has been highlighted by recent fires and the call from the Chinese government to improve the safety of battery pack operation, especially in public transport. Different players are pursuing air, liquid and refrigerant-cooled methods, each with their own benefits and weaknesses.
A study of battery pack manufacturers, primarily supplying packs to non-car vehicle segments, such as heavy duty-trucks, buses and logistics vehicles, is provided with a focus on the European and US players. Comparisons in the form factors, chemistries and performance of turnkey products is provided, along with a discussion of how pack manufacturers are differentiating themselves. The key markets and segments being targeted and suppliers, customers and partnerships are outlined.
Comparison of Li-ion battery packs. Additional data available in the report. Source: IDTechEx
Finally, the report gives an introduction into the opportunities that end-of-life Li-ion batteries represent, providing an introduction to 2nd life batteries and the current state of Li-ion recycling. Given the expected growth in electric vehicle adoption, suitable management of end-of-life Li-ion batteries is imperative to avoiding inappropriate disposal and a the build-up of a potentially huge waste management problem. Encouragingly, many OEMs are building strategies to incorporate circularity based on both 2nd-life applications and recycling.
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