Key findings

Global growth, but emerging markets become increasingly key

The global market for soft drinks saw another year of growth in 2024, with volume expansion increasingly dominated by rapidly expanding but low per capita consumption consumer markets in Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and Africa. Western Europe and North America face volume stagnation entering 2025, as higher retail prices have curbed topline consumption.

Value outpaces volume in a price-led soft drinks industry

Revenue growth across the categories of global soft drinks has been primarily price-driven since the end of the pandemic. In 2025, the legacy of inflation and cost-of-living concerns will continue to shape consumer choices, boosting value-tier brands, club channels and discounter grocery. Premium and functional brands must carefully balance affordability and innovation in this climate.

A consolidated industry shows signs of growing brand fragmentation

The long-term dominance of major multinational producers like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo is being challenged like never before. On one hand, value-focused, highly localised brands in emerging markets are gaining share in carbonates, juices, bottled water and even premium energy drinks. On the other hand, premium, influencer-led independent launches now have outsized reach.

A two-track growth model over the next five years?

Over 2025-2029, the industry essentially faces a two-speed growth model. Mature markets will rely on premiumisation through promising functional innovation and category blurring (ie adult non-alcohol). In emerging consumer markets, volume growth will be driven by increased accessibility and affordability, meeting both local tastes and local economic realities.

Rising importance of both informal and digital retail to soft drinks

The changing geography of growth in global soft drinks will ensure that independent small grocers and a more fragmented, informal retail landscape will play a growing role in distribution. At the same time, online meal delivery and new smart vending (or automated market) technologies will also form a larger part of impulse consumption in higher income markets.