To support the growing electrification enabled by lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), securing a stable and responsible supply of critical minerals that are essential raw materials for LIBs has become increasingly urgent. The demand for critical battery materials will triple in market value, exhibiting a 10.6% CAGR between 2025-2035.

 

This report uncovers the evolving critical materials demand trends for LIBs and provides comprehensive overviews on mineral extraction and processing technology advancements, and market supply outlooks for five key minerals: lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, and natural graphite. The global mineral supply outlook is based on over 649 data points from land-based mine operations and projects. Additionally, the report examines the potential of deep-sea mining, evaluating its opportunities and challenges as a future source of critical minerals.

 

Global critical battery materials demand outlook

The demand for different battery minerals shows different growth rates. This is due to several factors, including the demand for LIBs of different chemistries, material intensity variations across battery chemistries, and ongoing developments in lithium-ion cell design. Minerals experiencing a fast growth in demand are manganese and nickel, while copper and cobalt are experiencing comparatively slower growth.

Graphite remains the dominant anode material for LIBs and is the most required critical battery material by weight, with the highest projected growth in demand by weight. However, the increasing prominence of silicon as anode materials is a key driver in slowing down graphite demand in the future.

 

Lithium remains essential across all cathode and anode chemistries, with small variations in lithium intensity. However, while alternative battery technologies like sodium-ion could weaken lithium demand, any significant shift is unlikely in the near term.

Copper, an essential component for anode current collectors in LIBs, is experiencing slower demand growth due to efforts to reduce current collector thickness and the development of composite alternatives with lower copper content.

 

The evolving cathode chemistry trend directly influences demand for nickel, manganese and cobalt. Nickel demand is trending high due to the increasing adoption of high- and ultra-high-nickel cathode formulations for the EV industry. However, this growth faces competition from non-nickel or low-nickel alternatives like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP). Manganese demand is set to rise, driven by the increasing adoption of LMFP cathodes and, to a lesser extent, manganese-rich cathodes like high-voltage lithium nickel-manganese oxide (LNMO). However, manganese battery-related demand remains small compared to non-battery demand in the medium term. Cobalt is expected to have the slowest demand growth among LIB materials and the lowest demand growth by weight. Lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) batteries, the most cobalt-intensive chemistry primarily used in consumer electronics, have already seen a decline in market share -- a trend that is expected to continue. Additionally, the growing adoption of cobalt-free formulations will further suppress cobalt demand in the future.

 

The report provides detailed forecasts on critical material demand from LIBs, segmented by application and region, taking into account of the evolving cell chemistry trends and developments in lithium-ion cell design.

 

Global mineral supply outlook

Materials demand from LIBs are growing at a faster rate than their global supply from mining. Battery-sector demand is becoming increasingly dominant, as seen with lithium and cobalt, and is expected to extend to other minerals—most notably nickel, due to its rapid demand growth and currently moderate battery-related consumption.

 

Producing LIBs requires battery-grade purity levels for materials such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite. However, refining these minerals to battery-grade is both costly and energy-intensive. Currently, the majority of global refining capacity is concentrated in China, posing geopolitical risks to the battery supply chain. In response, countries like Australia are prioritizing the expansion of domestic refining capacities for batteries. Additionally, vertical integration — linking mineral extraction with battery-grade chemical production — is rising across several key battery materials.

 

Currently, battery minerals are primarily sourced from land-based mining operations. Larger, near-surface, high-grade deposits have historically been prioritized. As these high-grade sources become depleted, mining shifts toward lower-grade ores, which require processing larger volumes to extract the same amount of material. This decline in ore grades and changes in mineralogy can pose both economic and technical challenges. In response, advanced mineral extraction and processing technologies are being developed, but these innovations require significant time and investment, introducing financial risks.

 

Deep-sea mining holds potential to future mineral supply. However, deep-sea mining for these minerals remains uncertain in the near-to-medium term due to issues including regulatory challenges, public acceptance, and economic feasibility. The report explores seabed resources, detailing their distribution and characteristics, along with outlooks on mineral exploration and exploitation in both domestic and international waters. It also examines advancements in marine mineral processing technologies and provides an overview on the activities of key players in the sector.

 

Comprehensive analysis and outlook

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the critical minerals used in LIBs and analyzes key material demand trends. It examines advancements in mineral extraction and processing technologies, as well as market supply outlooks for five essential minerals: lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, and natural graphite.

 

Additionally, the report reviews critical mineral regulations in major regions, including China, Australia, Indonesia, Chile, Europe, and the United States.

 

The report covers a10-year forecast period, offering detailed market predictions and trends. It includes projections of critical material demand from LIBs, segmented by application and region. Furthermore, it provides global supply forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper from mining, with regional breakdowns.